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US retail sales surged in March 2024, exceeding expectations. After an upward revision of February’s retail sales to 0.9% from 0.6%, March saw 0.7% increase, above forecasts of 0.3%. Consumer spending remains resilient, with eight out of thirteen categories experiencing growth.
Notable increases were observed in the following sectors:
• Nonstore retailers
• Gasoline stations
• Miscellaneous store retailers
• Building materials and garden equipment
However, some categories experienced declines. For instance, motor vehicle and parts sales, Electronics and appliance stores as well as furniture sales also declined. The resilience of consumers, supported by employment and income gains, outweighed concerns about stubborn inflation.
Our cautious approach to risk-taking does not signal an impending earnings recession. The robust US retail sale aligns with our Goldilock’s base scenario. Consequently, we maintain our belief that the market momentum is delayed and not derailed.
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